News writer, Interviewer
Where you live could be shaping your lottery odds more than you think. A Vegas Insider analysis of U.S. lottery data found that jackpot wins are far from evenly distributed. While every ticket carries the same odds, some states consistently produce winners. Others see far fewer major payouts over time.
The study examined historical Powerball and Mega Millions jackpot results. It covers all recorded wins through to the most recent available data in 2025 and ranks states on total wins, wins per year, and wins per million residents.
The result is a divide between high-frequency states and those where big wins are rare.
Size doesn't tell the whole story
At first glance, New York and California appear dominant. At 55, New York has the most total jackpot wins of any state. California isn't far behind with 44 wins.
But adjust for population, and the picture changes.
New York's per-capita rate drops to 59.6 wins per million residents. California's falls to 24.2. These states produce winners because they have enormous populations buying tickets, not because players there win at a higher rate.
The more interesting story is what smaller states are doing.
Small but mighty
Virginia ranks #2 overall with 41 jackpot wins. Its wins per million residents: 100. That's the highest in the country. Virginia isn't the biggest state, but it produces winners at a rate that outperforms states with far more players.
Maryland ranks #5 with 22 total wins. This might be considered modest by volume. But its per-capita rate sits at 76.1 wins per million residents. That puts it ahead of both New York and California on the metric that actually matters to individual players.
Iowa is the biggest overperformer on the list. Just 13 total jackpot wins. But its wins per million residents total 86.9. That ranks among the highest efficiency rates in the entire dataset. For a state this size, that number is intriguing.
Rhode Island rounds out the surprise package at #9. Four total wins sounds low. But with a small population, those four wins translate to 77.7 wins per million residents. That is higher than New Jersey, Massachusetts, and every large state in the top ten.
Where Americans are and are not winning
At the top, Michigan leads with 46 jackpot wins, the strongest balance of volume, frequency, and per-capita performance in the country. Virginia follows at #2 with the highest wins per million residents of any state: 100. New York sits at #3 with the most total wins overall at 55, though its per-person rate of 59.6 trails the states above it. California ranks #4 with a strong yearly output but a per-capita rate of just 24.2. Maryland at #5 and Iowa at #6 post per-capita rates of 76.1 and 86.9, respectively. Massachusetts, New Jersey, Rhode Island, and Missouri round out the top ten with steady, consistent results. Rhode Island, in particular, stands out with 77.7 wins per million residents despite just four total jackpot wins.
At the other end, the picture is stark. Wyoming, South Dakota, and Montana recorded zero jackpot wins during the study period. Vermont managed one. New Hampshire and Idaho each recorded two. These states participate in the same lotteries, sell the same tickets, and carry the same printed odds. But over decades of draws, major wins have simply not landed there.
What the data actually tells you
The odds printed on a lottery ticket don't change based on your zip code. But where you buy that ticket, and what state you're playing in, does appear to shape how often winners emerge over time.
Iowa has 13 jackpot wins to its name. Virginia has produced winners at a rate that beats every other state per capita. Rhode Island, with a population of under 1.1 million, is huge.
The big states get the headlines. The small ones, it turns out, have been quietly winning for years.
