News writer
States are reporting declines in lottery sales expectations. Economic instability might be to blame, but it's unclear how long the slumps will last.
The state of the market
From April 2024 to April 2025, American wages increased by 1.4%, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. This modest number was contending with high inflation.
While wages are now performing slightly better, economic growth declined in the first quarter of 2025 due to President Donald Trump's tariff announcements, according to NerdWallet. The President even forewarned of an imminent recession.
How are state lotteries doing?
It's possible that these economic red flags are turning some consumers away from the lottery. Many states are experiencing dips in sales that they didn't expect.
In Indiana, scratch-offs underperformed by $58 million year over year. The State Lottery Commission lowered its sales forecast last week, anticipating a decrease by 4%, according to the Indiana Capital Chronicle.
Hoosier Lottery Executive Director Sarah Taylor told reporters after a commission meeting:
Folks may spend a little bit less on their entertainment dollars with us, and we respect and understand that and look forward to when they are returning to us. We did take a cautious approach on not only the draw games but also on scratch. We want to make sure it's the right fit for our players…And yes, we were cautious.
In Florida, scratch-off sales took a dip in 2024 after the commission counted $132.5 million less in lottery sales than expected. Sales are expected to decrease again to $8.778 billion in the current 2024-2025 fiscal year, a significant drop from their 2022-2023 earnings of $9.8 billion. Economists are citing inflation and the fact that consumers are prioritizing necessities over entertainment, according to CBS News.
During the past three months, Oregon reduced its lottery and general fund forecast from $40.1 billion to $39.3 billion, according to OPB.
In Massachusetts, March 2025 sales were down by 8.8% compared to last year, with scratch ticket sales were down by 6%, according to SHNS. And in October, Rhode Island sales were trending down year over year by 8.2%, according to the Newport News.
The lottery and the economy
Often in history, lottery sales actually go up during times of economic uncertainty since buying tickets can feel like a hopeful act. During the 2020 pandemic, lottery sales hit unprecedented heights. However, the rise was only after an initial slump due to closures, lockdowns, and economic shock. It's possible that lotto sales will climb again after tariff news cools down.
Historical results are mixed. During the 2008 recession, some states saw increases in lottery sales while others saw decreases. National sales dropped by $215 million, or 2%, according to La Fleur's Lottery World.
To top it off, the 2025 downturn is contending with new factors, including a rise in other forms of online betting and, in some states, online lottery couriers and iLottery. People aren't trapped at home with nothing to do, unlike pandemic times. The playing field looks quite different - and it's anyone's guess how the chips will fall.
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