Lottery participation just hit a record low. But the future is not set.

Fewer Americans are buying lottery tickets than at any point since Gallup started asking. A new Gallup poll finds that just 31% of U.S. adults say they played a state Lottery in the past year. Compare that to the high-40% range Gallup measured as recently as 2016. Go back further, to the 1990s, and lottery play was a majority activity.

The numbers look steep at first glance. But a closer look at the data tells a more interesting story, one about how people play, how they answer surveys, and how the Lottery industry is already adapting.

The drop isn't limited to lotteries, either. Gallup's poll, based on phone interviews with more than 2,200 U.S. adults in June and July, found declines across nearly every form of gambling it tracks. Overall, 45% of Americans say they gambled in some way over the past year. Ten years ago, that number was 64%.

So what's going on?

A moral shift

Start with attitudes. Gallup has also tracked how "morally acceptable" Americans find gambling. That number fell from 67% in 2016 to 57% this year — a record low. Fewer people approve of gambling. Fewer people say they gamble. The two trends move together.

But approval isn't the same as participation, and the gap between the two is worth a closer look. Does a lower approval number mean fewer people actually play? Or does it mean fewer people are willing to admit it? Gallup's data suggests both are true, and that second explanation opens the door to some good news.

Phone surveys undercount lottery players

Here's the good news. Gallup ran a parallel survey online, using its Gallup Panel, and asked the same questions. The results came back higher across the board. In the web survey, 53% of adults reported gambling in the past year, compared to 45% in the phone survey.

Why the gap? People may feel less comfortable telling a live interviewer they gamble than typing an anonymous answer into a computer. If gambling carries more stigma than it did a decade ago, that reluctance would grow too.

This matters for how we read the topline number. The 31% lottery figure comes from the phone survey. The true rate of play could sit meaningfully higher.

Who still plays

Some groups are far more likely to gamble than others, and the pattern holds across both surveys:

• Income: 54% of adults earning $100,000 or more gamble, compared to 40% of those earning under $50,000.
• Gender: Men (49%) gamble more than women (40%).
• Age: Adults 50 and older (50%) gamble more than those under 50 (41%).

One group stands out as the least likely to gamble at all: women under 50, at just 35%.

A shrinking pool, or a shrinking industry?

Here's the puzzle, and it's an encouraging one. Individual participation is falling. Industry gambling revenue is not. Gallup points to a few possible explanations. A smaller group of players may be gambling more often, or spending more each time. Rising prices could mean people are paying more per play, even if fewer people play at all. Gambling activity has also shifted toward formal, government-run channels — like state lotteries — which are easier to track than the informal betting pools of the past.

That last point works in the Lottery industry's favor. As office pools (down from 15% to 7%) and casual side bets fade, state lotteries may be capturing a larger share of whatever gambling dollars remain.

The bottom line

Fewer Americans say they play the lottery than at any point in decades. But the story isn't as simple as "lottery play is dying." Some of that decline may be Americans growing quieter about a habit they still have, not giving it up. It's a story about shifting attitudes, survey methods, and where gambling dollars go once they leave a player's pocket.

Lotteries aren't standing still, either. Many are diversifying beyond the classic ticket to keep players engaged, adding features like Powerball's X's and O's, raffles, and experiential prizes. Whether that's enough to reverse the participation trend, or simply cushion the decline, remains to be seen.